Spread: Houston Cougars (-35.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jacksonville State Gamecocks (60%) · Jacksonville State Gamecocks at 55¢ · $982 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
5
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 60%
$981.97
$4.12
52.1¢ → 54.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidJacksonville State Gamecocks at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Jacksonville State Gamecocks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 52¢ | $720.4 | $755.52 | +$35.12 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Houston Cougarsavg 53.3¢ | $197.9 | $166.95 | -$30.95 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 55¢ | $55 | $54.5 | -$0.5 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.75 | +$0.5 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Houston Cougarsavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.25 | -$0.05 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$720.4
Value
$755.52
PnL
+$35.12
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$197.9
Value
$166.95
PnL
-$30.95
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$55
Value
$54.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.5
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.