Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jacksonville State Gamecocks, while the market favors Houston Cougars (51%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Houston Cougars (-34.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jacksonville State Gamecocks (80%) · Jacksonville State Gamecocks at 50¢ · $793 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
5
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 80%
$793.26
-$3.8
50.8¢ → 49.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidJacksonville State Gamecocks at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Houston Cougars 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Jacksonville State Gamecocks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 51¢ | $766.97 | $759.45 | -$7.52 | 53% 1841-1653 (3494) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 41¢ | $13.21 | $16.12 | +$2.9 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 50¢ | $58.5 | $12.74 | +$0.86 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Houston Cougarsavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.45 | -$0.05 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$766.97
Value
$759.45
PnL
-$7.52
Record
53%
1841-1653 (3494)
Invested
$13.21
Value
$16.12
PnL
+$2.9
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$58.5
Value
$12.74
PnL
+$0.86
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.05
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.