Lindenwood Lions vs. Omaha Mavericks: O/U 154.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$44.35

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 55.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,216

Combined PnL-$11.89

Over6 traders

Total Value$156.27

Total Shares381

Combined PnL-$32.46

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 56.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$39.74	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 49¢	$176.79	$205.66	+$28.86	45% 214-259 (473)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 50.3¢	$100.5	$82	-$18.5	53% 1030-921 (1951)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$52.02	$41.82	-$10.2	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$22.38	$19.12	-$3.26	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 57¢	$22.67	$11.66	-$1.01	55% 248-199 (447)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$7.6	$7.6	-$0	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$3.69	$3.69	+$0	43% 808-1065 (1873)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.05	-$0.5	40% 584-893 (1477)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,336.18

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$39.74

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$176.79

Value

$205.66

PnL

+$28.86

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$100.5

Value

$82

PnL

-$18.5

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.02

Value

$41.82

PnL

-$10.2

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.38

Value

$19.12

PnL

-$3.26

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$22.67

Value

$11.66

PnL

-$1.01

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.69

Value

$3.69

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.5

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.