Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons (54%) · Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at 87¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons87¢Eastern Illinois Panthers13¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Consensus Traders

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$53.15

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 86.5¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidPurdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons87%

Eastern Illinois Panthers14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,425

Combined PnL+$123.2

Eastern Illinois Panthers6 traders

Total Value$208.33

Total Shares1,541

Combined PnL-$70.04

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons — 54%Eastern Illinois Panthers — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEastern Illinois Panthers 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedPurdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 82.2¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	+$76	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Eastern Illinois Panthersavg 17.8¢	$847.42	$867.81	+$20.39	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
└ Eastern Illinois Panthers leg	Eastern Illinois Panthersavg 17.8¢	$437.97	$455.84	+$17.86
└ Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons leg	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 81¢	$409.44	$411.97	+$2.53
RN1	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 82¢	$767.26	$806.14	+$38.88	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
TH thirdt1me	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 81.9¢	$163.85	$151.67	+$0.6	47% 383-426 (809)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Eastern Illinois Panthersavg 17¢	$64.09	$50.9	-$13.2	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Eastern Illinois Panthersavg 19¢	$66.35	$47.14	-$19.21	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Eastern Illinois Panthersavg 19¢	$66.1	$46.97	-$19.13	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Eastern Illinois Panthersavg 19.8¢	$47.58	$32.52	-$15.06	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
PA Pan9X<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 82.2¢	$31.83	$31.27	-$0.56	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100	Eastern Illinois Panthersavg 16¢	$31.77	$26.81	-$4.96	49% 549-581 (1130)
38 38791873984189<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 81¢	$25.92	$26.08	+$0.16	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
0xheavy888<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 59¢	$14.39	$22.68	+$8.29	56% 693-539 (1232)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodonsavg 83.1¢	$33.54	$14.37	-$0.17	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Eastern Illinois Panthersavg 9¢	$2.48	$3.99	+$1.52	49% 2896-2959 (5855)

Flaznorp

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$2,115.88

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$76

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Eastern Illinois Panthers

Invested

$847.42

Value

$867.81

PnL

+$20.39

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

Both legs:

Eastern Illinois Panthers$437.9717.8¢+$17.86

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons$409.4481¢+$2.53

RN1

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$767.26

Value

$806.14

PnL

+$38.88

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

thirdt1me

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$163.85

Value

$151.67

PnL

+$0.6

Record

47%

383-426 (809)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Eastern Illinois Panthers

Invested

$64.09

Value

$50.9

PnL

-$13.2

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

LimousinCTR<$100

Eastern Illinois Panthers

Invested

$66.35

Value

$47.14

PnL

-$19.21

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Eastern Illinois Panthers

Invested

$66.1

Value

$46.97

PnL

-$19.13

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

VenusianCTR<$100

Eastern Illinois Panthers

Invested

$47.58

Value

$32.52

PnL

-$15.06

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

Pan9X<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$31.83

Value

$31.27

PnL

-$0.56

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100

Eastern Illinois Panthers

Invested

$31.77

Value

$26.81

PnL

-$4.96

Record

49%

549-581 (1130)

38791873984189<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$25.92

Value

$26.08

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

0xheavy888<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$14.39

Value

$22.68

PnL

+$8.29

Record

56%

693-539 (1232)

ferdinand2<$100

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Invested

$33.54

Value

$14.37

PnL

-$0.17

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Eastern Illinois Panthers

Invested

$2.48

Value

$3.99

PnL

+$1.52

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

Research grade

AvoidPurdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEastern Illinois Panthers 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedPurdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.