Spread: Iowa Hawkeyes (-3.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa Hawkeyes (25%) · Iowa Hawkeyes at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Iowa Hawkeyes55¢Creighton Bluejays45¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Iowa Hawkeyes

Consensus Traders

Iowa Hawkeyes 25%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$4.95

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 55¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidIowa Hawkeyes at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iowa Hawkeyes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Iowa Hawkeyes55%

Creighton Bluejays45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iowa Hawkeyes2 traders

Total Value$550.86

Total Shares985

Combined PnL+$23.9

Creighton Bluejays6 traders

Total Value$486.38

Total Shares1,095

Combined PnL-$28.84

Iowa Hawkeyes — 25%Creighton Bluejays — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Iowa Hawkeyes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIowa Hawkeyes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCreighton Bluejays 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Creighton Bluejays 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IC ic4cream	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 53¢	$426.96	$450.86	+$23.9	9% 48-480 (528)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Creighton Bluejaysavg 47¢	$320.7	$300.49	-$20.21	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
QW qWOprt7	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 55.9¢	$100	$100	+$0	8% 8-88 (96)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Creighton Bluejaysavg 47¢	$70.5	$66	-$4.5	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Creighton Bluejaysavg 46.7¢	$66.08	$62.25	-$3.83	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Creighton Bluejaysavg 44¢	$51.04	$51.04	-$0	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Creighton Bluejaysavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.4	-$0.1	52% 419-387 (806)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Creighton Bluejaysavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.2	-$0.2	43% 851-1135 (1986)

ic4cream

Iowa Hawkeyes

Invested

$426.96

Value

$450.86

PnL

+$23.9

Record

48-480 (528)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Creighton Bluejays

Invested

$320.7

Value

$300.49

PnL

-$20.21

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

qWOprt7

Iowa Hawkeyes

Invested

$100

Value

$100

PnL

+$0

Record

8-88 (96)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Creighton Bluejays

Invested

$70.5

Value

$66

PnL

-$4.5

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Creighton Bluejays

Invested

$66.08

Value

$62.25

PnL

-$3.83

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Creighton Bluejays

Invested

$51.04

Value

$51.04

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Creighton Bluejays

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

419-387 (806)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Creighton Bluejays

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

Research grade

AvoidIowa Hawkeyes at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Iowa Hawkeyes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Iowa Hawkeyes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIowa Hawkeyes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCreighton Bluejays 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Creighton Bluejays 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iowa Hawkeyes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.