Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Creighton Bluejays

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Creighton Bluejays (50%) · Creighton Bluejays at 59¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Iowa Hawkeyes42¢Creighton Bluejays58¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Creighton Bluejays

Consensus Traders

Creighton Bluejays 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$101.32

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 58.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCreighton Bluejays at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Creighton Bluejays

5 of 10 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Iowa Hawkeyes42%

Creighton Bluejays59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Creighton Bluejays5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,294

Combined PnL-$78

Iowa Hawkeyes5 traders

Total Value$186.06

Total Shares359

Combined PnL-$23.32

Creighton Bluejays — 50%Iowa Hawkeyes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Creighton Bluejaysavg 60.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$50.8	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 39¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$162.54	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
└ Iowa Hawkeyes leg	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 39¢	$996.04	$1.0K	+$51.08
└ Creighton Bluejays leg	Creighton Bluejaysavg 46.5¢	$412.63	$524.1	+$111.47
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Creighton Bluejaysavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
└ Creighton Bluejays leg	Creighton Bluejaysavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0
└ Iowa Hawkeyes leg	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0
RN1ARB<$100	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 43.7¢	$322.07	$311.63	-$10.44	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
└ Iowa Hawkeyes leg	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 43.7¢	$196.88	$184.91	-$11.98
└ Creighton Bluejays leg	Creighton Bluejaysavg 58.3¢	$125.19	$126.72	+$1.54
AV averagejoetradersCTR	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 59¢	$177	$157.5	-$19.5	55% 788-651 (1439)
TH thirdt1me	Creighton Bluejaysavg 59.9¢	$102.13	$85.26	-$16.87	47% 383-426 (809)
ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 41¢	$56.4	$60	+$3.6	83% 1030-210 (1240)
└ Iowa Hawkeyes leg	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 41¢	$32.8	$40	+$7.2
└ Creighton Bluejays leg	Creighton Bluejaysavg 59¢	$23.6	$20	-$3.6
38 38791873984189<$100	Creighton Bluejaysavg 57.5¢	$59.52	$51.71	-$7.8	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Creighton Bluejaysavg 59.9¢	$48.89	$45.23	-$1.32	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 61¢	$12.67	$10.38	-$2.28	56% 693-539 (1232)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 59¢	$10	$8.9	-$1.1	43% 580-772 (1352)
PA Pan9X<$100	Creighton Bluejaysavg 58¢	$8.7	$7.5	-$1.2	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 40¢	$6.61	$6.78	+$0.17	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Iowa Hawkeyesavg 62¢	$3.1	$2.5	-$0.6	43% 875-1153 (2028)

Flaznorp

Creighton Bluejays

Invested

$1,778.64

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$50.8

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Iowa Hawkeyes

Invested

$1,408.67

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$162.54

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

Both legs:

Iowa Hawkeyes$996.0439¢+$51.08

Creighton Bluejays$412.6346.5¢+$111.47

NotJumpARB<$100

Creighton Bluejays

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Both legs:

Creighton Bluejays$262.550¢+$0

Iowa Hawkeyes$262.550¢+$0

RN1ARB<$100

Iowa Hawkeyes

Invested

$322.07

Value

$311.63

PnL

-$10.44

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Both legs:

Iowa Hawkeyes$196.8843.7¢-$11.98

Creighton Bluejays$125.1958.3¢+$1.54

averagejoetradersCTR

Iowa Hawkeyes

Invested

$177

Value

$157.5

PnL

-$19.5

Record

55%

788-651 (1439)

thirdt1me

Creighton Bluejays

Invested

$102.13

Value

$85.26

PnL

-$16.87

Record

47%

383-426 (809)

ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100

Iowa Hawkeyes

Invested

$56.4

Value

$60

PnL

+$3.6

Record

83%

1030-210 (1240)

Both legs:

Iowa Hawkeyes$32.841¢+$7.2

Creighton Bluejays$23.659¢-$3.6

38791873984189<$100

Creighton Bluejays

Invested

$59.52

Value

$51.71

PnL

-$7.8

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

ferdinand2<$100

Creighton Bluejays

Invested

$48.89

Value

$45.23

PnL

-$1.32

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Iowa Hawkeyes

Invested

$12.67

Value

$10.38

PnL

-$2.28

Record

56%

693-539 (1232)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Iowa Hawkeyes

Invested

$10

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$1.1

Record

43%

580-772 (1352)

Pan9X<$100

Creighton Bluejays

Invested

$8.7

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Iowa Hawkeyes

Invested

$6.61

Value

$6.78

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Iowa Hawkeyes

Invested

$3.1

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.6

Record

43%

875-1153 (2028)

Research grade

AvoidCreighton Bluejays at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Creighton Bluejays

5 of 10 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Creighton Bluejays wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.