Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (96%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. UC Davis Aggies: O/U 144.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 4.5¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.1K
-$132.06
47¢ → 4.5¢
-90% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 46¢ | $435.65 | $883.2 | +$447.55 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $84.6 | $88.2 | +$3.6 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
GL glennyorkshireCTR | Underavg 54¢ | $507.13 | $56.35 | -$450.78 | 50% 48-48 (96) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 40¢ | $166.47 | $33.59 | -$132.88 | 53% 1830-1635 (3465) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $5.4 | $5.85 | +$0.45 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
Invested
$435.65
Value
$883.2
PnL
+$447.55
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$84.6
Value
$88.2
PnL
+$3.6
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
Invested
$507.13
Value
$56.35
PnL
-$450.78
Record
50%
48-48 (96)
Invested
$166.47
Value
$33.59
PnL
-$132.88
Record
53%
1830-1635 (3465)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$5.85
PnL
+$0.45
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.