Illinois State Redbirds vs. Purdue Boilermakers

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Purdue Boilermakers (50%) · Purdue Boilermakers at 97¢ · $989 held · ended Nov 10

Illinois State Redbirds3¢Purdue Boilermakers97¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Purdue Boilermakers

Consensus Traders

Purdue Boilermakers 50%

Total Value

$989.07

Combined PnL

$17.13

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 96.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPurdue Boilermakers at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Purdue Boilermakers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Illinois State Redbirds3%

Purdue Boilermakers97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Purdue Boilermakers5 traders

Total Value$727.86

Total Shares763

Combined PnL+$5.26

Illinois State Redbirds5 traders

Total Value$261.21

Total Shares3,484

Combined PnL+$11.87

Purdue Boilermakers — 50%Illinois State Redbirds — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Purdue Boilermakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPurdue Boilermakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIllinois State Redbirds 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Purdue Boilermakers 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Purdue Boilermakersavg 92¢	$424	$392.2	+$2.12	71% 34-14 (48)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Illinois State Redbirdsavg 7.1¢	$217.66	$230.93	+$13.27	48% 69-75 (144)
HO HomeRunHazard	Purdue Boilermakersavg 92¢	$237.67	$222.81	+$2.53	30% 29-67 (96)
38 38791873984189<$100	Purdue Boilermakersavg 92¢	$92	$92.5	+$0.5	50% 405-412 (817)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Illinois State Redbirdsavg 8¢	$27.44	$25.73	-$1.72	27% 113-301 (414)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Purdue Boilermakersavg 92¢	$13.8	$13.87	+$0.07	22% 54-197 (251)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Purdue Boilermakersavg 92¢	$6.44	$6.47	+$0.03	63% 67-40 (107)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Illinois State Redbirdsavg 7¢	$3.99	$4.27	+$0.28	44% 54-68 (122)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Illinois State Redbirdsavg 7¢	$0.2	$0.21	+$0.01	3% 9-250 (259)
RN1CTR<$100	Illinois State Redbirdsavg 3¢	$0.06	$0.07	+$0.01	53% 274-241 (515)

0xheavy888

Purdue Boilermakers

Invested

$424

Value

$392.2

PnL

+$2.12

Record

71%

34-14 (48)

SnakeBallCTR

Illinois State Redbirds

Invested

$217.66

Value

$230.93

PnL

+$13.27

Record

48%

69-75 (144)

HomeRunHazard

Purdue Boilermakers

Invested

$237.67

Value

$222.81

PnL

+$2.53

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

38791873984189<$100

Purdue Boilermakers

Invested

$92

Value

$92.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

405-412 (817)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Illinois State Redbirds

Invested

$27.44

Value

$25.73

PnL

-$1.72

Record

27%

113-301 (414)

ameisgoat11<$100

Purdue Boilermakers

Invested

$13.8

Value

$13.87

PnL

+$0.07

Record

22%

54-197 (251)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Purdue Boilermakers

Invested

$6.44

Value

$6.47

PnL

+$0.03

Record

63%

67-40 (107)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Illinois State Redbirds

Invested

$3.99

Value

$4.27

PnL

+$0.28

Record

44%

54-68 (122)

hi774cCTR<$100

Illinois State Redbirds

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0.01

Record

9-250 (259)

RN1CTR<$100

Illinois State Redbirds

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

274-241 (515)

Research grade

AvoidPurdue Boilermakers at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Purdue Boilermakers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Purdue Boilermakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPurdue Boilermakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIllinois State Redbirds 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Purdue Boilermakers 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Purdue Boilermakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.