Illinois State Redbirds vs. North Dakota State Bison: O/U 147.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 58¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Over42¢Under58¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$18.48

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 58¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$960.05

Total Shares1,644

Combined PnL+$35.66

Over5 traders

Total Value$167.34

Total Shares389

Combined PnL-$17.19

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 55.9¢	$899.22	$928.13	+$33.56	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$2.9K	$86	-$10	75% 112-37 (149)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 47.6¢	$72.69	$65.61	-$7.08	53% 1030-921 (1951)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 50¢	$15	$17.1	+$2.1	45% 214-259 (473)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 57¢	$14.82	$14.82	-$0	55% 248-199 (447)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$11.18	$11.18	+$0	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.5	$2.44	-$0.06	43% 808-1065 (1873)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.1	-$0.05	40% 584-893 (1477)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$899.22

Value

$928.13

PnL

+$33.56

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$2,850

Value

$86

PnL

-$10

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$72.69

Value

$65.61

PnL

-$7.08

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$15

Value

$17.1

PnL

+$2.1

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$14.82

Value

$14.82

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.18

Value

$11.18

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.06

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.