Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Texas Tech Red Raiders, while the market favors Illinois Fighting Illini (51%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-2.5)

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech Red Raiders (100%) · Texas Tech Red Raiders at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Illinois Fighting Illini51¢Texas Tech Red Raiders49¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Consensus Traders

Texas Tech Red Raiders 100%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$53.73

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 49¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidTexas Tech Red Raiders at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech Red Raiders

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Illinois Fighting Illini 51%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Illinois Fighting Illini51%

Texas Tech Red Raiders49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas Tech Red Raiders9 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,996

Combined PnL+$53.73

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Texas Tech Red Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTexas Tech Red Raiders 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas Tech Red Raiders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Texas Tech Red Raiders 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 48.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14.56	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
FO forecastication4CTR	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 48¢	$526.31	$537.28	+$10.96	11% 24-188 (212)
HI hi774cCTR	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 48¢	$510.66	$521.3	+$10.64	8% 35-419 (454)
0xheavy888CTR	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 48¢	$319.68	$326.34	+$6.66	56% 105-81 (186)
38 38791873984189CTR	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 48.4¢	$316.61	$320.75	+$4.14	47% 781-864 (1645)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 48¢	$147.36	$150.43	+$3.07	50% 1390-1407 (2797)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 48.5¢	$97	$98	+$1	48% 220-236 (456)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 48¢	$96	$98	+$2	14% 29-180 (209)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Texas Tech Red Raidersavg 48¢	$33.66	$34.36	+$0.7	30% 160-379 (539)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$1,362.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$14.56

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

forecastication4CTR

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$526.31

Value

$537.28

PnL

+$10.96

Record

11%

24-188 (212)

hi774cCTR

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$510.66

Value

$521.3

PnL

+$10.64

Record

35-419 (454)

0xheavy888CTR

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$319.68

Value

$326.34

PnL

+$6.66

Record

56%

105-81 (186)

38791873984189CTR

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$316.61

Value

$320.75

PnL

+$4.14

Record

47%

781-864 (1645)

FlaznorpCTR

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$147.36

Value

$150.43

PnL

+$3.07

Record

50%

1390-1407 (2797)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$97

Value

$98

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

220-236 (456)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$96

Value

$98

PnL

+$2

Record

14%

29-180 (209)

sentrioCTR<$100

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Invested

$33.66

Value

$34.36

PnL

+$0.7

Record

30%

160-379 (539)

Research grade

AvoidTexas Tech Red Raiders at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech Red Raiders

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Illinois Fighting Illini 51%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Texas Tech Red Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTexas Tech Red Raiders 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexas Tech Red Raiders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Texas Tech Red Raiders 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas Tech Red Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.