Idaho State Bengals vs. Utah State Aggies
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Utah State Aggies (67%) · Utah State Aggies at 99¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Utah State Aggies
6
Utah State Aggies 67%
$19.5K
$36.52
97.1¢ → 98.9¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUtah State Aggies at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Utah State Aggies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Utah State Aggiesavg 97.1¢ | $16.7K | $17.0K | +$293.62 | 51% 21008-19991 (40999) |
 HRTrading | Utah State Aggiesavg 96.5¢ | $936.9 | $958.12 | +$17.85 | 52% 6768-6135 (12903) |
SN SnakeBall | Utah State Aggiesavg 98.3¢ | $819.73 | $833.24 | +$13.51 | 50% 34946-34393 (69339) |
38 38791873984189 | Utah State Aggiesavg 98.1¢ | $506.59 | $411.38 | +$3.58 | 47% 13319-14853 (28172) |
CA canupdatelateronCTR | Idaho State Bengals | $249.46 | $249.46 | -$291.93 | 70% 456-200 (656) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Idaho State Bengalsavg 1.6¢ | $7.02 | $6.91 | -$0.11 | 48% 5733-6182 (11915) |
Invested
$16,726.51
Value
$17.0K
PnL
+$293.62
Record
51%
21008-19991 (40999)
HRTradingInvested
$936.9
Value
$958.12
PnL
+$17.85
Record
52%
6768-6135 (12903)
Invested
$819.73
Value
$833.24
PnL
+$13.51
Record
50%
34946-34393 (69339)
Invested
$506.59
Value
$411.38
PnL
+$3.58
Record
47%
13319-14853 (28172)
Invested
$249.46
Value
$249.46
PnL
-$291.93
Record
70%
456-200 (656)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$6.91
PnL
-$0.11
Record
48%
5733-6182 (11915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.