High Point Panthers vs. Liberty Flames

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold High Point Panthers (42%) · High Point Panthers at 91¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 2

High Point Panthers91¢Liberty Flames9¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

High Point Panthers

Consensus Traders

High Point Panthers 42%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$579.03

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 90.5¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidHigh Point Panthers at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

High Point Panthers

5 of 12 top traders (42%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

High Point Panthers91%

Liberty Flames10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

High Point Panthers5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares6,166

Combined PnL+$674.61

Liberty Flames7 traders

Total Value$109.9

Total Shares782

Combined PnL-$95.58

High Point Panthers — 42%Liberty Flames — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on High Point Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLiberty Flames 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLiberty Flames 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Liberty Flames 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	High Point Panthersavg 80.6¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$53.53	45% 6299-7631 (13930)
└ High Point Panthers leg	High Point Panthersavg 80.6¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$112.53
└ Liberty Flames leg	Liberty Flamesavg 20.6¢	$650.36	$709.35	+$58.99
UP UpTheBlues	High Point Panthersavg 77.1¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$272.33	58% 47788-33996 (81784)
SN SnakeBall	High Point Panthersavg 76.3¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$365.52	50% 34244-33812 (68056)
AW awesoARB<$100	High Point Panthersavg 77¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$59.1	46% 59-69 (128)
└ High Point Panthers leg	High Point Panthersavg 77¢	$590.79	$594.63	+$3.84
└ Liberty Flames leg	Liberty Flamesavg 20.4¢	$533.65	$588.91	+$55.26
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	High Point Panthersavg 77.5¢	$1.1K	$994.88	-$110.4	51% 16720-15862 (32582)
└ High Point Panthers leg	High Point Panthersavg 77.5¢	$560.35	$658.12	+$97.77
└ Liberty Flames leg	Liberty Flamesavg 14.6¢	$544.93	$336.76	-$208.17
PA panpidaras1	High Point Panthersavg 74.4¢	$596.47	$629.14	+$32.67	50% 217-217 (434)
LU LuckyLoo	High Point Panthersavg 78¢	$334.04	$338.32	+$4.28	49% 13274-13998 (27272)
38 38791873984189CTR	Liberty Flamesavg 24.7¢	$297.32	$53.99	-$98.59	47% 11778-13375 (25153)
HRTrading<$100	High Point Panthersavg 76.5¢	$33.48	$33.29	-$0.19	53% 6305-5681 (11986)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Liberty Flamesavg 24¢	$26.52	$25.97	-$0.55	50% 3989-3974 (7963)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Liberty Flamesavg 9.5¢	$10.7	$10.13	-$0.57	48% 1141-1244 (2385)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Liberty Flamesavg 16.9¢	$8.79	$9.38	+$0.58	52% 725-667 (1392)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Liberty Flamesavg 21¢	$8.56	$6.5	+$4.56	45% 5638-6771 (12409)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Liberty Flamesavg 33¢	$2.31	$2.38	+$0.07	49% 2405-2546 (4951)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Liberty Flamesavg 22¢	$2.64	$1.56	-$1.08	53% 3123-2721 (5844)

NotJumpARB<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$3,591.61

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$53.53

Record

45%

6299-7631 (13930)

Both legs:

High Point Panthers$2,941.2580.6¢-$112.53

Liberty Flames$650.3620.6¢+$58.99

UpTheBlues

High Point Panthers

Invested

$2,007.92

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$272.33

Record

58%

47788-33996 (81784)

SnakeBall

High Point Panthers

Invested

$1,898.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$365.52

Record

50%

34244-33812 (68056)

awesoARB<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$1,124.44

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$59.1

Record

46%

59-69 (128)

Both legs:

High Point Panthers$590.7977¢+$3.84

Liberty Flames$533.6520.4¢+$55.26

FlaznorpARB<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$1,105.28

Value

$994.88

PnL

-$110.4

Record

51%

16720-15862 (32582)

Both legs:

High Point Panthers$560.3577.5¢+$97.77

Liberty Flames$544.9314.6¢-$208.17

panpidaras1

High Point Panthers

Invested

$596.47

Value

$629.14

PnL

+$32.67

Record

50%

217-217 (434)

LuckyLoo

High Point Panthers

Invested

$334.04

Value

$338.32

PnL

+$4.28

Record

49%

13274-13998 (27272)

38791873984189CTR

Liberty Flames

Invested

$297.32

Value

$53.99

PnL

-$98.59

Record

47%

11778-13375 (25153)

HRTrading<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$33.48

Value

$33.29

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

6305-5681 (11986)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Liberty Flames

Invested

$26.52

Value

$25.97

PnL

-$0.55

Record

50%

3989-3974 (7963)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Liberty Flames

Invested

$10.7

Value

$10.13

PnL

-$0.57

Record

48%

1141-1244 (2385)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Liberty Flames

Invested

$8.79

Value

$9.38

PnL

+$0.58

Record

52%

725-667 (1392)

suntoriCTR<$100

Liberty Flames

Invested

$8.56

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$4.56

Record

45%

5638-6771 (12409)

smithagentCTR<$100

Liberty Flames

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

2405-2546 (4951)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Liberty Flames

Invested

$2.64

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$1.08

Record

53%

3123-2721 (5844)

Research grade

AvoidHigh Point Panthers at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

High Point Panthers

5 of 12 top traders (42%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on High Point Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLiberty Flames 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLiberty Flames 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Liberty Flames 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that High Point Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.