Howard Bison vs. Penn Quakers

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Penn Quakers (58%) · Penn Quakers at 97¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 9

Howard Bison3¢Penn Quakers97¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Penn Quakers

Consensus Traders

Penn Quakers 58%

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 97.4¢

+33% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidPenn Quakers at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Penn Quakers

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Howard Bison3%

Penn Quakers97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penn Quakers7 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares11,323

Combined PnL+$188.01

Howard Bison5 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares10,180

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Penn Quakers — 58%Howard Bison — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2	Penn Quakersavg 91.3¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$75.56	47% 43-49 (92)
CI cigarettesCTR	Howard Bisonavg 61¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$244.25	42% 124-169 (293)
RU RUDY2323	Penn Quakersavg 49.6¢	$1.5K	$2.6K	-$184.56	— 0-5 (5)
SU suitcase6628	Penn Quakersavg 78¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$12.55	—
RN1	Penn Quakersavg 65.8¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$180.35	54% 248-213 (461)
38 38791873984189	Penn Quakersavg 71.2¢	$505.89	$685.05	+$184.06	49% 398-410 (808)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Howard Bisonavg 46.5¢	$1.2K	$568.78	-$616.55	30% 108-250 (358)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Howard Bisonavg 60.1¢	$590.85	$555.77	-$35.08	52% 190-176 (366)
OJ ojgCTR	Howard Bisonavg 68¢	$268.43	$91.46	-$176.96	33% 50-102 (152)
PA Pan9X	Penn Quakersavg 89.4¢	$217.64	$75.07	-$55.34	48% 179-191 (370)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Howard Bisonavg 51¢	$751.37	$66.26	-$685.11	22% 44-160 (204)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Penn Quakersavg 67¢	$8.31	$8.81	+$0.51	10% 11-104 (115)

alpheclabs2

Penn Quakers

Invested

$3,391.88

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$75.56

Record

47%

43-49 (92)

cigarettesCTR

Howard Bison

Invested

$3,323.5

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$244.25

Record

42%

124-169 (293)

RUDY2323

Penn Quakers

Invested

$1,500

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$184.56

Record

—

0-5 (5)

suitcase6628

Penn Quakers

Invested

$1,957.8

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$12.55

Record

—

RN1

Penn Quakers

Invested

$1,085.46

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$180.35

Record

54%

248-213 (461)

38791873984189

Penn Quakers

Invested

$505.89

Value

$685.05

PnL

+$184.06

Record

49%

398-410 (808)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Howard Bison

Invested

$1,185.33

Value

$568.78

PnL

-$616.55

Record

30%

108-250 (358)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Howard Bison

Invested

$590.85

Value

$555.77

PnL

-$35.08

Record

52%

190-176 (366)

ojgCTR

Howard Bison

Invested

$268.43

Value

$91.46

PnL

-$176.96

Record

33%

50-102 (152)

Pan9X

Penn Quakers

Invested

$217.64

Value

$75.07

PnL

-$55.34

Record

48%

179-191 (370)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Howard Bison

Invested

$751.37

Value

$66.26

PnL

-$685.11

Record

22%

44-160 (204)

BoomLaLa<$100

Penn Quakers

Invested

$8.31

Value

$8.81

PnL

+$0.51

Record

10%

11-104 (115)

Research grade

AvoidPenn Quakers at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Penn Quakers

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Penn Quakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.