Harvard Crimson vs. Northeastern Huskies: O/U 144.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$1.5K
-$11.09
53.2¢ → 53¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 53.2¢ | $1.0K | $998.69 | -$1.67 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 46.5¢ | $288.05 | $278.55 | -$9.5 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
HI hi774c | Underavg 53¢ | $100.77 | $100.77 | +$0 | 8% 37-420 (457) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $79.5 | $79.5 | +$0 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $6.37 | $6.65 | +$0.28 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.25 | -$0.2 | 24% 161-506 (667) |
Invested
$1,000.36
Value
$998.69
PnL
-$1.67
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$288.05
Value
$278.55
PnL
-$9.5
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
Invested
$100.77
Value
$100.77
PnL
+$0
Record
8%
37-420 (457)
Invested
$79.5
Value
$79.5
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
Invested
$6.37
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$0.28
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$0.2
Record
24%
161-506 (667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.