Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Harvard Crimson vs. Northeastern Huskies: O/U 143.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 50¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$3.2K
$6.99
52.9¢ → 50¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186 | Underavg 53¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$30.72 | 49% 488-513 (1001) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 47¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$34.83 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $46.53 | $47.52 | +$0.99 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $19.2 | $20.8 | +$1.6 | 55% 119-96 (215) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $7.3 | $7.6 | +$0.3 | 26% 180-518 (698) |
Invested
$1,630.97
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$30.72
Record
49%
488-513 (1001)
Invested
$1,478.34
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$34.83
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$46.53
Value
$47.52
PnL
+$0.99
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$19.2
Value
$20.8
PnL
+$1.6
Record
55%
119-96 (215)
Invested
$7.3
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$0.3
Record
26%
180-518 (698)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.