Harvard Crimson vs. George Washington Revolutionaries: O/U 135.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$0.14

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$558.72

Total Shares1,007

Combined PnL+$6.28

Over7 traders

Total Value$452.23

Total Shares1,016

Combined PnL-$6.14

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 54.8¢	$545.2	$551.67	+$6.47	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 44.6¢	$237.85	$237.19	-$0.66	53% 388-339 (727)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Overavg 50¢	$650	$89	-$5	75% 112-37 (149)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 44.6¢	$71.1	$71	-$0.11	53% 1030-921 (1951)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$49.95	$49.4	-$0.56	33% 88-181 (269)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 57¢	$7.24	$7.05	-$0.19	55% 248-199 (447)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.23	+$0.08	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.23	+$0.08	45% 214-259 (473)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$1.16	$1.2	+$0.04	50% 3193-3131 (6324)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$545.2

Value

$551.67

PnL

+$6.47

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$237.85

Value

$237.19

PnL

-$0.66

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Over

Invested

$650

Value

$89

PnL

-$5

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$71.1

Value

$71

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

biying99999CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.95

Value

$49.4

PnL

-$0.56

Record

33%

88-181 (269)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$7.24

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$0.19

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.08

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.