Hampton Pirates vs. Navy Midshipmen

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hampton Pirates (56%) · Hampton Pirates at 54¢ · $565 held · ended Nov 14

Hampton Pirates54¢Navy Midshipmen46¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

Hampton Pirates

Consensus Traders

Hampton Pirates 56%

Total Value

$564.91

Combined PnL

$25.78

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 53.5¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidHampton Pirates at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hampton Pirates

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hampton Pirates54%

Navy Midshipmen47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hampton Pirates5 traders

Total Value$255.5

Total Shares539

Combined PnL+$15.8

Navy Midshipmen4 traders

Total Value$309.41

Total Shares513

Combined PnL+$9.98

Hampton Pirates — 56%Navy Midshipmen — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Hampton Piratesavg 49¢	$203.35	$201.28	-$2.07	52% 573-538 (1111)
RN1CTR	Navy Midshipmenavg 58¢	$139.78	$144.6	+$4.82	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Navy Midshipmenavg 58¢	$63.22	$65.4	+$2.18	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Navy Midshipmenavg 59¢	$60.56	$61.6	+$1.04	48% 283-303 (586)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Navy Midshipmenavg 56.9¢	$35.87	$37.81	+$1.94	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Hampton Piratesavg 30.5¢	$23.12	$31.1	+$7.98	35% 162-305 (467)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Hampton Piratesavg 23¢	$7.19	$15.15	+$7.97	58% 3639-2637 (6276)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Hampton Piratesavg 47¢	$4.43	$4.58	+$0.14	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
SM smithagent<$100	Hampton Piratesavg 23¢	$1.61	$3.4	+$1.79	45% 699-859 (1558)

nigiri99

Hampton Pirates

Invested

$203.35

Value

$201.28

PnL

-$2.07

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

RN1CTR

Navy Midshipmen

Invested

$139.78

Value

$144.6

PnL

+$4.82

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Navy Midshipmen

Invested

$63.22

Value

$65.4

PnL

+$2.18

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Navy Midshipmen

Invested

$60.56

Value

$61.6

PnL

+$1.04

Record

48%

283-303 (586)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Navy Midshipmen

Invested

$35.87

Value

$37.81

PnL

+$1.94

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

BoomLaLa<$100

Hampton Pirates

Invested

$23.12

Value

$31.1

PnL

+$7.98

Record

35%

162-305 (467)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Hampton Pirates

Invested

$7.19

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$7.97

Record

58%

3639-2637 (6276)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Hampton Pirates

Invested

$4.43

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$0.14

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

smithagent<$100

Hampton Pirates

Invested

$1.61

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$1.79

Record

45%

699-859 (1558)

Research grade

AvoidHampton Pirates at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hampton Pirates

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hampton Pirates wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.