Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Georgia Southern Eagles, while the market favors Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (57%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-16.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Southern Eagles (67%) · Georgia Southern Eagles at 43¢ · $72 held · ends Nov 7

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets57¢Georgia Southern Eagles43¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Georgia Southern Eagles

Consensus Traders

Georgia Southern Eagles 67%

Total Value

$71.63

Combined PnL

$0.49

Research grade

AvoidGeorgia Southern Eagles at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Southern Eagles

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets57%

Georgia Southern Eagles43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Southern Eagles4 traders

Total Value$60.32

Total Shares140

Combined PnL-$0.1

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets2 traders

Total Value$11.3

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.59

Georgia Southern Eagles — 67%Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Georgia Southern Eaglesavg 42.9¢	$39.74	$39.88	+$0.14	51% 26331-24957 (51288)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Georgia Southern Eaglesavg 42.2¢	$11.43	$11.79	+$0.36	50% 26109-25769 (51878)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Georgia Tech Yellow Jacketsavg 55.2¢	$8.29	$8.48	+$0.38	54% 18310-15408 (33718)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Georgia Southern Eaglesavg 45.3¢	$6.75	$6.48	-$0.27	56% 8104-6429 (14533)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Georgia Tech Yellow Jacketsavg 52.2¢	$2.61	$2.82	+$0.21	53% 2621-2316 (4937)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Georgia Southern Eaglesavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.18	-$0.33	52% 8853-8042 (16895)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Georgia Southern Eagles

Invested

$39.74

Value

$39.88

PnL

+$0.14

Record

51%

26331-24957 (51288)

sentrioCTR<$100

Georgia Southern Eagles

Invested

$11.43

Value

$11.79

PnL

+$0.36

Record

50%

26109-25769 (51878)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Invested

$8.29

Value

$8.48

PnL

+$0.38

Record

54%

18310-15408 (33718)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Georgia Southern Eagles

Invested

$6.75

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$0.27

Record

56%

8104-6429 (14533)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

2621-2316 (4937)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Georgia Southern Eagles

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.33

Record

52%

8853-8042 (16895)

Research grade

AvoidGeorgia Southern Eagles at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Southern Eagles

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia Southern Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.