Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Holy Cross Crusaders, while the market favors Furman Paladins (52%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Furman Paladins (-12.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Holy Cross Crusaders (60%) · Holy Cross Crusaders at 48¢ · $30 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Holy Cross Crusaders
5
Holy Cross Crusaders 60%
$30.01
-$0.17
Research grade
AvoidHoly Cross Crusaders at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Furman Paladins 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Holy Cross Crusaders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Holy Cross Crusadersavg 52.7¢ | $12.65 | $12.23 | -$0.42 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Furman Paladinsavg 48.8¢ | $6.63 | $6.69 | +$0.06 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Holy Cross Crusadersavg 52¢ | $5 | $5.05 | +$0.05 | 38% 355-588 (943) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Furman Paladinsavg 48¢ | $3.35 | $3.49 | +$0.14 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Holy Cross Crusadersavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.55 | +$0 | 33% 307-625 (932) |
Invested
$12.65
Value
$12.23
PnL
-$0.42
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$6.63
Value
$6.69
PnL
+$0.06
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
38%
355-588 (943)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.49
PnL
+$0.14
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
307-625 (932)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.