Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (94%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Furman Paladins vs. Belmont Bruins: O/U 154.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 6.0¢ · $127 held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$126.93
-$8.3
51.2¢ → 6¢
-88% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 94%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 51.4¢ | $96.11 | $95.31 | -$0.8 | 56% 3787-2956 (6743) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $14.5 | $14.79 | +$0.29 | 44% 290-365 (655) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 90¢ | $17.09 | $9.3 | -$7.79 | 49% 4352-4620 (8972) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $4.73 | $4.73 | +$0 | 56% 580-460 (1040) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $2.8 | $2.8 | +$0 | 55% 5758-4807 (10565) |
Invested
$96.11
Value
$95.31
PnL
-$0.8
Record
56%
3787-2956 (6743)
Invested
$14.5
Value
$14.79
PnL
+$0.29
Record
44%
290-365 (655)
Invested
$17.09
Value
$9.3
PnL
-$7.79
Record
49%
4352-4620 (8972)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$4.73
Value
$4.73
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
580-460 (1040)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
5758-4807 (10565)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.