Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Belmont Bruins, while the market favors Furman Paladins (55%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Furman Paladins vs. Belmont Bruins

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Belmont Bruins (64%) · Belmont Bruins at 46¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Furman Paladins55¢Belmont Bruins45¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Belmont Bruins

Consensus Traders

Belmont Bruins 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$157.85

Smart Money Entry

67.3¢ → 45.5¢

-32% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidBelmont Bruins at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Belmont Bruins

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Furman Paladins 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Furman Paladins55%

Belmont Bruins46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Furman Paladins5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,580

Combined PnL+$444.87

Belmont Bruins9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,830

Combined PnL-$287.02

Furman Paladins — 36%Belmont Bruins — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Furman Paladinsavg 51.4¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$196.34	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Belmont Bruinsavg 55¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$16.83	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
└ Belmont Bruins leg	Belmont Bruinsavg 55¢	$974.26	$823.96	-$150.3
└ Furman Paladins leg	Furman Paladinsavg 38.8¢	$351.39	$484.87	+$133.47
RN1CTR	Belmont Bruinsavg 69.5¢	$1.0K	$835.67	-$208.1	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Furman Paladinsavg 26.9¢	$407.62	$577.21	+$266.95	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
└ Furman Paladins leg	Furman Paladinsavg 26.9¢	$199.63	$405.16	+$259.31
└ Belmont Bruins leg	Belmont Bruinsavg 43.5¢	$164.42	$172.06	+$7.64
VE Venusian	Furman Paladinsavg 27¢	$201.37	$382.08	+$180.71	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Belmont Bruinsavg 72¢	$287.99	$281.99	-$6	48% 311-334 (645)
38 38791873984189CTR	Belmont Bruinsavg 73.5¢	$212.48	$203.74	-$8.73	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
LI LightParadox	Furman Paladinsavg 29¢	$72.34	$144.53	+$72.19	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
dips.CTR	Belmont Bruinsavg 62¢	$133.3	$97.83	-$35.48	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Belmont Bruinsavg 40¢	$66.07	$75.15	+$9.08	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Belmont Bruinsavg 62¢	$307	$68.25	-$38.75	65% 668-360 (1028)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Belmont Bruinsavg 69.4¢	$36.33	$36.89	+$0.56	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Belmont Bruinsavg 56¢	$21.9	$22.29	+$0.39	56% 574-455 (1029)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Furman Paladinsavg 67¢	$23.78	$19.58	-$4.2	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603<$100	Furman Paladinsavg 43.9¢	$19.36	$19.19	-$0.17	59% 17-12 (29)
GA gagarin59CTR<$100	Belmont Bruinsavg 57¢	$13.26	$13.26	+$0	43% 74-100 (174)

Flaznorp

Furman Paladins

Invested

$1,630.42

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$196.34

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Belmont Bruins

Invested

$1,325.66

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$16.83

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

Both legs:

Belmont Bruins$974.2655¢-$150.3

Furman Paladins$351.3938.8¢+$133.47

RN1CTR

Belmont Bruins

Invested

$1,043.77

Value

$835.67

PnL

-$208.1

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

LimousinARB<$100

Furman Paladins

Invested

$407.62

Value

$577.21

PnL

+$266.95

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

Both legs:

Furman Paladins$199.6326.9¢+$259.31

Belmont Bruins$164.4243.5¢+$7.64

Venusian

Furman Paladins

Invested

$201.37

Value

$382.08

PnL

+$180.71

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

thirdt1meCTR

Belmont Bruins

Invested

$287.99

Value

$281.99

PnL

-$6

Record

48%

311-334 (645)

38791873984189CTR

Belmont Bruins

Invested

$212.48

Value

$203.74

PnL

-$8.73

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

LightParadox

Furman Paladins

Invested

$72.34

Value

$144.53

PnL

+$72.19

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

dips.CTR

Belmont Bruins

Invested

$133.3

Value

$97.83

PnL

-$35.48

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Belmont Bruins

Invested

$66.07

Value

$75.15

PnL

+$9.08

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

suitcase6628CTR

Belmont Bruins

Invested

$307

Value

$68.25

PnL

-$38.75

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Belmont Bruins

Invested

$36.33

Value

$36.89

PnL

+$0.56

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Belmont Bruins

Invested

$21.9

Value

$22.29

PnL

+$0.39

Record

56%

574-455 (1029)

ferdinand2<$100

Furman Paladins

Invested

$23.78

Value

$19.58

PnL

-$4.2

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603<$100

Furman Paladins

Invested

$19.36

Value

$19.19

PnL

-$0.17

Record

59%

17-12 (29)

gagarin59CTR<$100

Belmont Bruins

Invested

$13.26

Value

$13.26

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

74-100 (174)

Research grade

AvoidBelmont Bruins at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Belmont Bruins

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Furman Paladins 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Belmont Bruins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.