Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Florida A&M Rattlers vs. Kansas City Roos: O/U 151.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $235 held · ended Nov 11

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

Total Value

$235.22

Combined PnL

$38.39

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$229.62

Total Shares292

Combined PnL+$37.94

Over2 traders

Total Value$5.6

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.45

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 67.6¢	$152.25	$146.79	-$5.46	57% 4034-3050 (7084)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.6	$42	+$41.4	2% 3-158 (161)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 66¢	$21.52	$19.6	-$1.92	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$15.54	$19.08	+$3.54	53% 1818-1628 (3446)
SH shiifoo<$100	Overavg 22¢	$3.3	$4.5	+$1.2	62% 1325-796 (2121)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$1.78	$2.15	+$0.37	55% 715-580 (1295)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.1	-$0.75	28% 161-409 (570)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$152.25

Value

$146.79

PnL

-$5.46

Record

57%

4034-3050 (7084)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.6

Value

$42

PnL

+$41.4

Record

3-158 (161)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.52

Value

$19.6

PnL

-$1.92

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.54

Value

$19.08

PnL

+$3.54

Record

53%

1818-1628 (3446)

shiifoo<$100

Over

Invested

$3.3

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$1.2

Record

62%

1325-796 (2121)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.78

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.37

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.75

Record

28%

161-409 (570)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.