Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Florida A&M Rattlers, while the market favors Kansas City Roos (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Kansas City Roos (-8.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Florida A&M Rattlers (60%) · Florida A&M Rattlers at 50¢ · $694 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Florida A&M Rattlers
5
Florida A&M Rattlers 60%
$694.13
$34.7
55.9¢ → 50¢
-11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidFlorida A&M Rattlers at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Kansas City Roos 50%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Florida A&M Rattlers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Kansas City Roosavg 44.6¢ | $217.47 | $243.89 | +$26.42 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
38 38791873984189 | Florida A&M Rattlersavg 56.4¢ | $230.99 | $225.45 | -$5.54 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
FO forecastication4 | Florida A&M Rattlersavg 55¢ | $109.39 | $109.39 | +$0 | 18% 48-217 (265) |
FL Flaznorp | Kansas City Roosavg 43.1¢ | $88.64 | $102.75 | +$14.12 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Florida A&M Rattlersavg 56.3¢ | $12.95 | $12.65 | -$0.3 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
Invested
$217.47
Value
$243.89
PnL
+$26.42
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$230.99
Value
$225.45
PnL
-$5.54
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$109.39
Value
$109.39
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
48-217 (265)
Invested
$88.64
Value
$102.75
PnL
+$14.12
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$12.95
Value
$12.65
PnL
-$0.3
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.