Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 166.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 25%
$2.4K
$31.92
56.7¢ → 97.9¢
+73% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 52.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.7K | +$309.66 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 48.5¢ | $323.01 | $273.06 | -$49.95 | 56% 119-94 (213) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 95¢ | $237.49 | $193.55 | -$43.94 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $210.68 | $187.78 | -$22.9 | 11% 24-189 (213) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $132.95 | $40.94 | -$91 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 48.7¢ | $88.74 | $12.2 | -$66.61 | 50% 262-258 (520) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 4.2¢ | $7.09 | $7.65 | +$0.56 | 58% 3771-2731 (6502) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 46.5¢ | $4.65 | $0.75 | -$3.9 | 26% 177-517 (694) |
Invested
$1,346.49
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$309.66
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$323.01
Value
$273.06
PnL
-$49.95
Record
56%
119-94 (213)
Invested
$237.49
Value
$193.55
PnL
-$43.94
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$210.68
Value
$187.78
PnL
-$22.9
Record
11%
24-189 (213)
Invested
$132.95
Value
$40.94
PnL
-$91
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$88.74
Value
$12.2
PnL
-$66.61
Record
50%
262-258 (520)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$7.09
Value
$7.65
PnL
+$0.56
Record
58%
3771-2731 (6502)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$3.9
Record
26%
177-517 (694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.