Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 163.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 95¢ · $396 held · ended Nov 10

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

Total Value

$395.74

Combined PnL

$32.01

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 94.5¢

+39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$368.16

Total Shares444

Combined PnL+$45.21

Over2 traders

Total Value$27.58

Total Shares105

Combined PnL-$13.19

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2	Underavg 77¢	$130.4	$130.4	+$0	45% 83-102 (185)
RN1	Underavg 91¢	$105.51	$97.02	-$8.49	58% 3771-2731 (6502)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 47¢	$47	$77	+$30	50% 262-258 (520)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 48.5¢	$37.69	$59.89	+$22.2	48% 939-1010 (1949)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 35.9¢	$38.13	$26.88	-$11.24	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$3.85	+$1.5	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$2.65	$0.7	-$1.95	26% 177-517 (694)

alpheclabs2

Under

Invested

$130.4

Value

$130.4

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

83-102 (185)

RN1

Under

Invested

$105.51

Value

$97.02

PnL

-$8.49

Record

58%

3771-2731 (6502)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$47

Value

$77

PnL

+$30

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$37.69

Value

$59.89

PnL

+$22.2

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.13

Value

$26.88

PnL

-$11.24

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$1.5

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.65

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$1.95

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.