Spread: Florida Gators (-8.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Florida Gators (50%) · Florida Gators at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Florida Gators>99¢Florida State Seminoles<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Florida Gators

Consensus Traders

Florida Gators 50%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$15.29

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 99.5¢

+94% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidFlorida Gators at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Gators

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Florida Gators100%

Florida State Seminoles1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Florida Gators5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,152

Combined PnL-$37.6

Florida State Seminoles5 traders

Total Value$79.68

Total Shares265

Combined PnL+$22.32

Florida Gators — 50%Florida State Seminoles — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Florida Gators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFlorida State Seminoles 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFlorida State Seminoles 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Florida Gators 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Florida Gatorsavg 51¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$109.35	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
38 38791873984189	Florida Gatorsavg 46.2¢	$176.31	$213.83	+$61.04	48% 947-1017 (1964)
dips.	Florida Gatorsavg 79.8¢	$116.62	$133.64	+$17.02	42% 230-315 (545)
PA Pan9X<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 41.4¢	$73.67	$51.07	-$6.26	49% 443-470 (913)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 47¢	$33.24	$35.7	+$2.46	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
BA bands1CTR<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 47¢	$20.21	$25.8	+$5.59	50% 331-328 (659)
RN1CTR<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 1¢	$1.26	$13.23	+$11.97	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 47¢	$2.35	$3	+$0.65	26% 180-518 (698)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 1¢	$0.3	$1.95	+$1.65	1% 1-139 (140)
US User7429<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 54¢	$0.54	$0.49	-$0.05	19% 77-326 (403)

HomeRunHazard

Florida Gators

Invested

$2,985.57

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$109.35

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

38791873984189

Florida Gators

Invested

$176.31

Value

$213.83

PnL

+$61.04

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

dips.

Florida Gators

Invested

$116.62

Value

$133.64

PnL

+$17.02

Record

42%

230-315 (545)

Pan9X<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$73.67

Value

$51.07

PnL

-$6.26

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$33.24

Value

$35.7

PnL

+$2.46

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

bands1CTR<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$20.21

Value

$25.8

PnL

+$5.59

Record

50%

331-328 (659)

RN1CTR<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$1.26

Value

$13.23

PnL

+$11.97

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$2.35

Value

PnL

+$0.65

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$0.3

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$1.65

Record

1-139 (140)

User7429<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.05

Record

19%

77-326 (403)

Research grade

AvoidFlorida Gators at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Gators

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Florida Gators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFlorida State Seminoles 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFlorida State Seminoles 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Florida Gators 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida Gators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.