Spread: Florida Gators (-10.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Florida State Seminoles (38%) · Florida State Seminoles at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Florida Gators<1¢Florida State Seminoles>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Florida State Seminoles

Consensus Traders

Florida State Seminoles 38%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$190.35

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 99.7¢

+60% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidFlorida State Seminoles at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida State Seminoles

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Florida Gators0%

Florida State Seminoles100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Florida State Seminoles3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,215

Combined PnL+$593.87

Florida Gators5 traders

Total Value$598.54

Total Shares2,412

Combined PnL-$403.52

Florida State Seminoles — 38%Florida Gators — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Florida State Seminoles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFlorida Gators 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedFlorida Gators 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Florida Gators 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME metski29	Florida State Seminolesavg 59.3¢	$1.6K	$2.1K	+$495.13	0% 0-48 (48)
HI hi774cCTR	Florida Gatorsavg 41¢	$727.2	$372.47	-$354.73	8% 37-422 (459)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Florida State Seminolesavg 67¢	$211.23	$288.61	+$77.38	56% 488-383 (871)
RN1	Florida State Seminolesavg 89¢	$226.57	$247.93	+$21.36	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
38 38791873984189CTR	Florida Gatorsavg 40.4¢	$179.75	$171.11	-$7.26	48% 947-1017 (1964)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 40¢	$77.6	$40.74	-$36.86	11% 24-189 (213)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 44¢	$9.6	$9.39	-$0.22	51% 299-291 (590)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 40.3¢	$9.28	$4.83	-$4.45	49% 443-470 (913)

metski29

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$1,569.13

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$495.13

Record

0-48 (48)

hi774cCTR

Florida Gators

Invested

$727.2

Value

$372.47

PnL

-$354.73

Record

37-422 (459)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$211.23

Value

$288.61

PnL

+$77.38

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

RN1

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$226.57

Value

$247.93

PnL

+$21.36

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

38791873984189CTR

Florida Gators

Invested

$179.75

Value

$171.11

PnL

-$7.26

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$77.6

Value

$40.74

PnL

-$36.86

Record

11%

24-189 (213)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.39

PnL

-$0.22

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$9.28

Value

$4.83

PnL

-$4.45

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

Research grade

AvoidFlorida State Seminoles at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Florida State Seminoles

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Florida State Seminoles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFlorida Gators 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedFlorida Gators 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Florida Gators 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida State Seminoles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.