Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold George Washington Revolutionaries, while the market favors Elon Phoenix (56%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: George Washington Revolutionaries (-14.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold George Washington Revolutionaries (67%) · George Washington Revolutionaries at 44¢ · $191 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
George Washington Revolutionaries
3
George Washington Revolutionaries 67%
$191.27
$0.22
Research grade
AvoidGeorge Washington Revolutionaries at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Elon Phoenix 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100 | Elon Phoenixavg 56¢ | $88.48 | $88.48 | +$0 | 49% 488-513 (1001) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | George Washington Revolutionariesavg 44¢ | $75.77 | $75.77 | +$0 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | George Washington Revolutionariesavg 49.2¢ | $26.8 | $27.02 | +$0.22 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
Invested
$88.48
Value
$88.48
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
488-513 (1001)
Invested
$75.77
Value
$75.77
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$26.8
Value
$27.02
PnL
+$0.22
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.