Eastern Illinois Panthers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Notre Dame Fighting Irish (40%) · Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 40%
$1.9K
$1.7
99.1¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNotre Dame Fighting Irish at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Notre Dame Fighting Irishavg 99.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$6.24 | 52% 47498-44700 (92198) |
SE sentrio | Notre Dame Fighting Irishavg 99.1¢ | $391.78 | $389.82 | +$1.72 | 50% 27997-27469 (55466) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Eastern Illinois Panthersavg 0.9¢ | $1.1K | $5.6 | -$4.48 | 50% 48656-48220 (96876) |
LI LimousinCTR | Eastern Illinois Panthersavg 0.9¢ | $257.78 | $1.29 | -$1.01 | 48% 2283-2446 (4729) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Eastern Illinois Panthersavg 1¢ | $154 | $0.77 | -$0.77 | 47% 2266-2532 (4798) |
Invested
$1,469.99
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$6.24
Record
52%
47498-44700 (92198)
Invested
$391.78
Value
$389.82
PnL
+$1.72
Record
50%
27997-27469 (55466)
Invested
$1,120
Value
$5.6
PnL
-$4.48
Record
50%
48656-48220 (96876)
Invested
$257.78
Value
$1.29
PnL
-$1.01
Record
48%
2283-2446 (4729)
Invested
$154
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$0.77
Record
47%
2266-2532 (4798)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.