Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (97%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
DePaul Blue Demons vs. Northwestern Wildcats: O/U 140.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 2.5¢ · $164 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
$164.4
-$93.26
47.4¢ → 2.5¢
-95% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 54¢ | $110.03 | $113.27 | +$3.24 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $105.12 | $38.32 | -$66.8 | 45% 224-276 (500) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $32.43 | $8.94 | -$23.49 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $6.1 | $2.32 | -$3.78 | 43% 920-1244 (2164) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $0.88 | -$1.42 | 40% 614-914 (1528) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $1.68 | $0.67 | -$1.01 | 53% 1186-1032 (2218) |
Invested
$110.03
Value
$113.27
PnL
+$3.24
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
Invested
$105.12
Value
$38.32
PnL
-$66.8
Record
45%
224-276 (500)
Invested
$32.43
Value
$8.94
PnL
-$23.49
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$2.32
PnL
-$3.78
Record
43%
920-1244 (2164)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$0.88
PnL
-$1.42
Record
40%
614-914 (1528)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.68
Value
$0.67
PnL
-$1.01
Record
53%
1186-1032 (2218)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.