Delaware State Hornets vs. East Carolina Pirates: O/U 147.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 54¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$0.92

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 53.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,536

Combined PnL+$37.18

Over6 traders

Total Value$990.33

Total Shares2,127

Combined PnL-$36.26

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RollAwayTheDew	Underavg 52.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$25.86	18% 58-270 (328)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 47.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$1.43	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$8.95
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$349.2	$359.57	+$10.37
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 48.9¢	$646.48	$614.73	-$31.75	45% 261-317 (578)
FO forecastication4	Underavg 51¢	$212.16	$220.48	+$8.32	33% 168-336 (504)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$800	$173.07	-$0	69% 133-60 (193)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$92	-$8
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$75.07	$81.07	+$8
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 47.6¢	$164.62	$159.1	-$5.52	42% 1002-1373 (2375)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 47¢	$107.16	$104.88	-$2.28	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 51¢	$76.5	$79.5	+$3	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$57.96	$59.85	+$1.89	36% 110-194 (304)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$47.82	$49.41	+$1.59	53% 1366-1192 (2558)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.35	-$0.2	41% 698-1011 (1709)

RollAwayTheDew

Under

Invested

$1,563.18

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$25.86

Record

18%

58-270 (328)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,514.46

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.43

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Over$1,165.2747.9¢-$8.95

Under$349.251¢+$10.37

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$646.48

Value

$614.73

PnL

-$31.75

Record

45%

261-317 (578)

forecastication4

Under

Invested

$212.16

Value

$220.48

PnL

+$8.32

Record

33%

168-336 (504)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$800

Value

$173.07

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

133-60 (193)

Both legs:

Invested

$164.62

Value

$159.1

PnL

-$5.52

Record

42%

1002-1373 (2375)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$107.16

Value

$104.88

PnL

-$2.28

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$76.5

Value

$79.5

PnL

+$3

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

biying99999CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.96

Value

$59.85

PnL

+$1.89

Record

36%

110-194 (304)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.82

Value

$49.41

PnL

+$1.59

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.2

Record

41%

698-1011 (1709)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.