Spread: East Carolina Pirates (-16.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold East Carolina Pirates (75%) · East Carolina Pirates at 52¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

East Carolina Pirates52¢Delaware State Hornets48¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

East Carolina Pirates

Consensus Traders

East Carolina Pirates 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$0.84

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 51.5¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidEast Carolina Pirates at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

East Carolina Pirates

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

East Carolina Pirates52%

Delaware State Hornets49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

East Carolina Pirates6 traders

Total Value$609.23

Total Shares1,308

Combined PnL+$11.51

Delaware State Hornets2 traders

Total Value$263.35

Total Shares481

Combined PnL-$10.66

East Carolina Pirates — 75%Delaware State Hornets — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	East Carolina Piratesavg 44.6¢	$274.65	$270.96	-$3.69	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
RN1	East Carolina Piratesavg 46.6¢	$199.49	$209.86	+$10.37	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Delaware State Hornetsavg 55.1¢	$377.19	$208.06	+$6.77	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
└ Delaware State Hornets leg	Delaware State Hornetsavg 55.1¢	$128.25	$135.02	+$10.05
└ East Carolina Pirates leg	East Carolina Piratesavg 44.2¢	$76.79	$73.04	-$3.28
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Delaware State Hornetsavg 58¢	$141.3	$141.3	+$0	49% 536-565 (1101)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Delaware State Hornetsavg 56¢	$132.71	$122.05	-$10.66	45% 509-610 (1119)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	East Carolina Piratesavg 47¢	$112.96	$117.77	+$4.81	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	East Carolina Piratesavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.4	-$0.1	54% 286-244 (530)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	East Carolina Piratesavg 44¢	$3.93	$4.15	+$0.22	55% 1630-1337 (2967)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	East Carolina Piratesavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.1	-$0.1	41% 705-1014 (1719)

HomeRunHazard

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$274.65

Value

$270.96

PnL

-$3.69

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

RN1

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$199.49

Value

$209.86

PnL

+$10.37

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Delaware State Hornets

Invested

$377.19

Value

$208.06

PnL

+$6.77

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

Both legs:

Delaware State Hornets$128.2555.1¢+$10.05

East Carolina Pirates$76.7944.2¢-$3.28

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Delaware State Hornets

Invested

$141.3

Value

$141.3

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

536-565 (1101)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Delaware State Hornets

Invested

$132.71

Value

$122.05

PnL

-$10.66

Record

45%

509-610 (1119)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$112.96

Value

$117.77

PnL

+$4.81

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$3.93

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$0.22

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

ameisgoat11<$100

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

41%

705-1014 (1719)

Research grade

AvoidEast Carolina Pirates at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

East Carolina Pirates

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that East Carolina Pirates wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.