Delaware State Hornets vs. East Carolina Pirates

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold East Carolina Pirates (56%) · East Carolina Pirates at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Delaware State Hornets4¢East Carolina Pirates96¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

East Carolina Pirates

Consensus Traders

East Carolina Pirates 56%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$46.17

Smart Money Entry

90.4¢ → 95.7¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidEast Carolina Pirates at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

East Carolina Pirates

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Delaware State Hornets4%

East Carolina Pirates96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

East Carolina Pirates5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,479

Combined PnL+$40.89

Delaware State Hornets4 traders

Total Value$274.45

Total Shares4,435

Combined PnL-$87.06

East Carolina Pirates — 56%Delaware State Hornets — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on East Carolina Pirates. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDelaware State Hornets 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Delaware State Hornets 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forecastication4	East Carolina Piratesavg 89¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$44.97	34% 171-339 (510)
GA gagarin59	East Carolina Piratesavg 92¢	$1.0K	$995.02	-$5.36	42% 64-89 (153)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Delaware State Hornetsavg 8¢	$177.58	$130.97	-$46.61	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
38 38791873984189	East Carolina Piratesavg 92¢	$190.41	$97.24	+$1.23	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Delaware State Hornetsavg 11¢	$135.85	$86.45	-$49.4	45% 268-322 (590)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Delaware State Hornetsavg 7¢	$39.86	$48.4	+$8.54	47% 969-1095 (2064)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Delaware State Hornetsavg 2¢	$8.22	$8.63	+$0.41	55% 1630-1337 (2967)
PA Pan9X<$100	East Carolina Piratesavg 92¢	$13.8	$4.58	+$0.07	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	East Carolina Piratesavg 92¢	$4.6	$4.58	-$0.02	41% 705-1014 (1719)

forecastication4

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$1,143.65

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$44.97

Record

34%

171-339 (510)

gagarin59

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$1,000.38

Value

$995.02

PnL

-$5.36

Record

42%

64-89 (153)

MadridTimeCTR

Delaware State Hornets

Invested

$177.58

Value

$130.97

PnL

-$46.61

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

38791873984189

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$190.41

Value

$97.24

PnL

+$1.23

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

Forecastication2CTR

Delaware State Hornets

Invested

$135.85

Value

$86.45

PnL

-$49.4

Record

45%

268-322 (590)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Delaware State Hornets

Invested

$39.86

Value

$48.4

PnL

+$8.54

Record

47%

969-1095 (2064)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Delaware State Hornets

Invested

$8.22

Value

$8.63

PnL

+$0.41

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

Pan9X<$100

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$13.8

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

ameisgoat11<$100

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$0.02

Record

41%

705-1014 (1719)

Research grade

AvoidEast Carolina Pirates at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

East Carolina Pirates

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on East Carolina Pirates. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDelaware State Hornets 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Delaware State Hornets 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that East Carolina Pirates wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.9%

95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.