Spread: Dartmouth Big Green (-2.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Albany Great Danes (60%) · Albany Great Danes at 56¢ · $261 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Albany Great Danes
5
Albany Great Danes 60%
$260.51
-$12.19
56.4¢ → 56.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidAlbany Great Danes at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Albany Great Danesavg 56¢ | $146.72 | $133.62 | -$13.1 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
FL Flaznorp | Albany Great Danesavg 57¢ | $112.24 | $112.29 | +$0.05 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Dartmouth Big Greenavg 41¢ | $7.72 | $8.58 | +$0.86 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Albany Great Danesavg 56¢ | $3.92 | $3.57 | -$0.35 | 48% 667-712 (1379) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Dartmouth Big Greenavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $2.45 | +$0.35 | 32% 291-617 (908) |
Invested
$146.72
Value
$133.62
PnL
-$13.1
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
Invested
$112.24
Value
$112.29
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$7.72
Value
$8.58
PnL
+$0.86
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$3.92
Value
$3.57
PnL
-$0.35
Record
48%
667-712 (1379)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0.35
Record
32%
291-617 (908)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.