Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (96%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. Western Illinois Leathernecks: O/U 148.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 4.0¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$190.72
45.6¢ → 4¢
-91% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 54.5¢ | $3.3K | $1.6K | $-1.7K | 57% 3461-2635 (6096) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$202.19 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54.5¢ | $1.9K | $422.75 | $-1.5K | |
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 44.5¢ | $412.5 | $50.28 | -$115.22 | 56% 324-253 (577) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Underavg 53¢ | $106 | $24 | -$82 | 17% 50-253 (303) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $33.18 | $11.09 | -$3.2 | 55% 213-176 (389) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $5.28 | $10.51 | +$5.22 | 56% 4632-3618 (8250) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $4.91 | $5.99 | +$1.09 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $58.62 | $5.74 | +$4.23 | 52% 881-800 (1681) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $2.88 | $2.04 | -$0.84 | 48% 703-766 (1469) |
Invested
$3,291.67
Value
$1.6K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
57%
3461-2635 (6096)
Both legs:
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$412.5
Value
$50.28
PnL
-$115.22
Record
56%
324-253 (577)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$106
Value
$24
PnL
-$82
Record
17%
50-253 (303)
Invested
$33.18
Value
$11.09
PnL
-$3.2
Record
55%
213-176 (389)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.28
Value
$10.51
PnL
+$5.22
Record
56%
4632-3618 (8250)
Invested
$4.91
Value
$5.99
PnL
+$1.09
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$58.62
Value
$5.74
PnL
+$4.23
Record
52%
881-800 (1681)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.88
Value
$2.04
PnL
-$0.84
Record
48%
703-766 (1469)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.