Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. Western Illinois Leathernecks
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bakersfield Roadrunners (100%) · Bakersfield Roadrunners at 80¢ · $367 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Bakersfield Roadrunners
5
Bakersfield Roadrunners 100%
1 arb excluded
$367.16
$2.17
78.6¢ → 80¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidBakersfield Roadrunners at 80%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Bakersfield Roadrunners. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Western Illinois Leathernecksavg 50¢ | $1.4K | $198 | -$2 | 82% 96-21 (117) |
| └ Bakersfield Roadrunners leg | Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 50¢ | $100 | $158 | +$58 | |
| └ Western Illinois Leathernecks leg | Western Illinois Leathernecksavg 50¢ | $100 | $40 | -$60 | |
HI hi774c | Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 79¢ | $102.05 | $103.34 | +$1.29 | 19% 127-533 (660) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 77.1¢ | $36.79 | $37.31 | +$0.52 | 57% 3458-2629 (6087) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 78¢ | $14.84 | $15.03 | +$0.19 | 51% 2691-2616 (5307) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 78¢ | $9.36 | $9.48 | +$0.12 | 55% 294-243 (537) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 79¢ | $3.95 | $4 | +$0.05 | 41% 614-874 (1488) |
Invested
$1,400
Value
$198
PnL
-$2
Record
82%
96-21 (117)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.05
Value
$103.34
PnL
+$1.29
Record
19%
127-533 (660)
Invested
$36.79
Value
$37.31
PnL
+$0.52
Record
57%
3458-2629 (6087)
Invested
$14.84
Value
$15.03
PnL
+$0.19
Record
51%
2691-2616 (5307)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$9.36
Value
$9.48
PnL
+$0.12
Record
55%
294-243 (537)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$4
PnL
+$0.05
Record
41%
614-874 (1488)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.