Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold North Dakota State Bison, while the market favors Bakersfield Roadrunners (50%). 0 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. North Dakota State Bison

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold North Dakota State Bison (71%) · North Dakota State Bison at 50¢ · $424 held · ended Nov 15

Bakersfield Roadrunners50¢North Dakota State Bison50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

North Dakota State Bison

Consensus Traders

North Dakota State Bison 71%

Total Value

$423.86

Combined PnL

$0.02

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 50¢

-18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorth Dakota State Bison at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Dakota State Bison

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Bakersfield Roadrunners 50%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bakersfield Roadrunners50%

North Dakota State Bison50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

North Dakota State Bison5 traders

Total Value$342.08

Total Shares571

Combined PnL-$5.69

Bakersfield Roadrunners2 traders

Total Value$81.78

Total Shares168

Combined PnL+$5.7

North Dakota State Bison — 71%Bakersfield Roadrunners — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on North Dakota State Bison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBakersfield Roadrunners 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000North Dakota State Bison 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	North Dakota State Bisonavg 63¢	$192.01	$192.1	+$0.09	49% 2881-2944 (5825)
FL Flaznorp<$100	North Dakota State Bisonavg 56.2¢	$74.46	$76.88	+$2.42	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 46¢	$54.08	$58.78	+$4.7	46% 1216-1411 (2627)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	North Dakota State Bisonavg 60¢	$60	$54	-$6	39% 237-370 (607)
LI Limousin<$100	Bakersfield Roadrunnersavg 44¢	$22	$23	+$1	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
0xheavy888<$100	North Dakota State Bisonavg 62¢	$18.6	$16.2	-$2.4	56% 686-535 (1221)
FE ferdinand2<$100	North Dakota State Bisonavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.9	+$0.2	48% 2617-2816 (5433)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

North Dakota State Bison

Invested

$192.01

Value

$192.1

PnL

+$0.09

Record

49%

2881-2944 (5825)

Flaznorp<$100

North Dakota State Bison

Invested

$74.46

Value

$76.88

PnL

+$2.42

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

SnakeBall<$100

Bakersfield Roadrunners

Invested

$54.08

Value

$58.78

PnL

+$4.7

Record

46%

1216-1411 (2627)

BoomLaLa<$100

North Dakota State Bison

Invested

$60

Value

$54

PnL

-$6

Record

39%

237-370 (607)

Limousin<$100

Bakersfield Roadrunners

Invested

$22

Value

$23

PnL

+$1

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

0xheavy888<$100

North Dakota State Bison

Invested

$18.6

Value

$16.2

PnL

-$2.4

Record

56%

686-535 (1221)

ferdinand2<$100

North Dakota State Bison

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

2617-2816 (5433)

Research grade

AvoidNorth Dakota State Bison at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

North Dakota State Bison

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Bakersfield Roadrunners 50%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on North Dakota State Bison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBakersfield Roadrunners 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000North Dakota State Bison 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Dakota State Bison wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.