Spread: Creighton Bluejays (-3.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kansas State Wildcats (33%) · Kansas State Wildcats at 51¢ · $795 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Kansas State Wildcats
6
Kansas State Wildcats 33%
$794.66
-$12.16
52.7¢ → 51¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidKansas State Wildcats at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Kansas State Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Kansas State Wildcatsavg 52.7¢ | $700.07 | $687.52 | -$12.55 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Creighton Bluejaysavg 48¢ | $82.56 | $82.56 | +$0 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Kansas State Wildcatsavg 50¢ | $10.5 | $10.71 | +$0.21 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Creighton Bluejaysavg 47.5¢ | $7.4 | $7.3 | -$0.1 | 24% 161-506 (667) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Creighton Bluejaysavg 46¢ | $4.63 | $4.84 | +$0.2 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Creighton Bluejaysavg 46¢ | $1.66 | $1.73 | +$0.07 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
Invested
$700.07
Value
$687.52
PnL
-$12.55
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$82.56
Value
$82.56
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$10.71
PnL
+$0.21
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$7.3
PnL
-$0.1
Record
24%
161-506 (667)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$4.63
Value
$4.84
PnL
+$0.2
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.66
Value
$1.73
PnL
+$0.07
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.