Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kansas State Wildcats, while the market favors Creighton Bluejays (60%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Creighton Bluejays vs. Kansas State Wildcats
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kansas State Wildcats (60%) · Kansas State Wildcats at 41¢ · $16 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Kansas State Wildcats
5
Kansas State Wildcats 60%
$16.44
-$0.06
Research grade
AvoidKansas State Wildcats at 41%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Creighton Bluejays 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Kansas State Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Kansas State Wildcatsavg 40¢ | $5.2 | $5.2 | -$0 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Kansas State Wildcatsavg 40¢ | $3.27 | $3.31 | +$0.04 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Creighton Bluejaysavg 59¢ | $2.98 | $2.98 | +$0 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Creighton Bluejaysavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $2.95 | -$0 | 34% 233-457 (690) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Kansas State Wildcatsavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $2 | -$0.1 | 26% 180-518 (698) |
Invested
$5.2
Value
$5.2
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Invested
$3.27
Value
$3.31
PnL
+$0.04
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
Invested
$2.98
Value
$2.98
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.95
PnL
-$0
Record
34%
233-457 (690)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
26%
180-518 (698)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.