Spread: St. Bonaventure Bonnies (-9.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Cornell Big Red (60%) · Cornell Big Red at 57¢ · $746 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Cornell Big Red
5
Cornell Big Red 60%
$745.69
$12.7
56¢ → 57¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCornell Big Red at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Cornell Big Red. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Cornell Big Redavg 56¢ | $518.46 | $528.03 | +$9.56 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
HI hi774c | Cornell Big Redavg 56¢ | $198.09 | $201.63 | +$3.54 | 14% 76-472 (548) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | St. Bonaventure Bonniesavg 46¢ | $6.9 | $6.6 | -$0.3 | 38% 355-588 (943) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Cornell Big Redavg 54¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 33% 307-625 (932) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | St. Bonaventure Bonniesavg 46¢ | $4.64 | $4.44 | -$0.2 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
Invested
$518.46
Value
$528.03
PnL
+$9.56
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$198.09
Value
$201.63
PnL
+$3.54
Record
14%
76-472 (548)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$6.6
PnL
-$0.3
Record
38%
355-588 (943)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
33%
307-625 (932)
Invested
$4.64
Value
$4.44
PnL
-$0.2
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.