Spread: St. Bonaventure Bonnies (-7.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold St. Bonaventure Bonnies (83%) · St. Bonaventure Bonnies at 52¢ · $622 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
6
St. Bonaventure Bonnies 83%
$622.08
-$5.48
52¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidSt. Bonaventure Bonnies at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on St. Bonaventure Bonnies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | St. Bonaventure Bonniesavg 52¢ | $440.44 | $436.21 | -$4.24 | 18% 49-220 (269) |
38 38791873984189 | St. Bonaventure Bonniesavg 52¢ | $136.24 | $134.93 | -$1.31 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Cornell Big Redavg 48¢ | $25.29 | $25.55 | +$0.26 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | St. Bonaventure Bonniesavg 52¢ | $10.4 | $10.3 | -$0.1 | 49% 683-724 (1407) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | St. Bonaventure Bonniesavg 56¢ | $10.29 | $10.09 | -$0.2 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | St. Bonaventure Bonniesavg 54¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$440.44
Value
$436.21
PnL
-$4.24
Record
18%
49-220 (269)
Invested
$136.24
Value
$134.93
PnL
-$1.31
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
Invested
$25.29
Value
$25.55
PnL
+$0.26
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$10.3
PnL
-$0.1
Record
49%
683-724 (1407)
Invested
$10.29
Value
$10.09
PnL
-$0.2
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.