Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Colgate Raiders, while the market favors St. John's Red Storm (51%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-29.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Colgate Raiders (67%) · Colgate Raiders at 49¢ · $713 held · ended Nov 12

St. John's Red Storm51¢Colgate Raiders49¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Colgate Raiders

Consensus Traders

Colgate Raiders 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$712.57

Combined PnL

$25.37

Research grade

AvoidColgate Raiders at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colgate Raiders

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors St. John's Red Storm 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

St. John's Red Storm51%

Colgate Raiders49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

St. John's Red Storm3 traders

Total Value$154.87

Total Shares211

Combined PnL+$61.6

Colgate Raiders6 traders

Total Value$45.32

Total Shares156

Combined PnL-$36.23

St. John's Red Storm — 33%Colgate Raiders — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Colgate Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on St. John's Red Storm) and the top 1000 (8 on Colgate Raiders) disagree here.

ctrColgate Raiders 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSt. John's Red Storm 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Colgate Raiders 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Colgate Raidersavg 51¢	$650.13	$512.38	-$137.76	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
└ Colgate Raiders leg	Colgate Raidersavg 51¢	$498.66	$283.55	-$215.11
└ St. John's Red Storm leg	St. John's Red Stormavg 47¢	$151.48	$228.83	+$77.35
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	St. John's Red Stormavg 44.8¢	$79.39	$125.93	+$46.54	31% 242-544 (786)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Colgate Raidersavg 53¢	$47.32	$25.89	-$21.43	50% 72-72 (144)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	St. John's Red Stormavg 22¢	$11.54	$25.4	+$13.87	55% 843-701 (1544)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Colgate Raidersavg 51¢	$15.81	$8.99	-$6.82	49% 973-998 (1971)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Colgate Raidersavg 53¢	$7.95	$4.35	-$3.6	54% 135-114 (249)
VeryLucky888<$100	St. John's Red Stormavg 47¢	$2.34	$3.54	+$1.2	52% 597-541 (1138)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Colgate Raidersavg 51¢	$4.59	$2.61	-$1.98	26% 42-118 (160)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Colgate Raidersavg 50¢	$4	$2.32	-$1.68	38% 99-159 (258)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Colgate Raidersavg 50¢	$800	$1.16	-$0.72	100% 71-0 (71)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Colgate Raiders

Invested

$650.13

Value

$512.38

PnL

-$137.76

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

Both legs:

Colgate Raiders$498.6651¢-$215.11

St. John's Red Storm$151.4847¢+$77.35

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

St. John's Red Storm

Invested

$79.39

Value

$125.93

PnL

+$46.54

Record

31%

242-544 (786)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Colgate Raiders

Invested

$47.32

Value

$25.89

PnL

-$21.43

Record

50%

72-72 (144)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

St. John's Red Storm

Invested

$11.54

Value

$25.4

PnL

+$13.87

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Colgate Raiders

Invested

$15.81

Value

$8.99

PnL

-$6.82

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Colgate Raiders

Invested

$7.95

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$3.6

Record

54%

135-114 (249)

VeryLucky888<$100

St. John's Red Storm

Invested

$2.34

Value

$3.54

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Colgate Raiders

Invested

$4.59

Value

$2.61

PnL

-$1.98

Record

26%

42-118 (160)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Colgate Raiders

Invested

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$1.68

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Colgate Raiders

Invested

$800

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$0.72

Record

100%

71-0 (71)

Research grade

AvoidColgate Raiders at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Colgate Raiders

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors St. John's Red Storm 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Colgate Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on St. John's Red Storm) and the top 1000 (8 on Colgate Raiders) disagree here.

ctrColgate Raiders 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSt. John's Red Storm 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Colgate Raiders 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colgate Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.