Spread: Providence Friars (-9.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Providence Friars (67%) · Providence Friars at 76¢ · $778 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Providence Friars
6
Providence Friars 67%
$777.83
$8.31
68.3¢ → 76¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidProvidence Friars at 76%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Providence Friarsavg 69.7¢ | $427.76 | $454.16 | +$26.4 | 55% 5525-4565 (10090) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Colorado Buffaloesavg 29.5¢ | $193.04 | $157.12 | -$35.92 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
38 38791873984189 | Providence Friarsavg 63.8¢ | $125.03 | $145.03 | +$20 | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Providence Friarsavg 74¢ | $13.31 | $13.31 | -$0 | 49% 1694-1746 (3440) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Colorado Buffaloesavg 33.5¢ | $6.7 | $4.8 | -$1.9 | 48% 2245-2407 (4652) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Providence Friarsavg 55¢ | $3.67 | $3.4 | -$0.27 | 56% 3718-2886 (6604) |
RN1Invested
$427.76
Value
$454.16
PnL
+$26.4
Record
55%
5525-4565 (10090)
Invested
$193.04
Value
$157.12
PnL
-$35.92
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Invested
$125.03
Value
$145.03
PnL
+$20
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
Invested
$13.31
Value
$13.31
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
1694-1746 (3440)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$1.9
Record
48%
2245-2407 (4652)
Invested
$3.67
Value
$3.4
PnL
-$0.27
Record
56%
3718-2886 (6604)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.