Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Colorado Buffaloes, while the market favors Providence Friars (57%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Providence Friars (-10.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado Buffaloes (50%) · Colorado Buffaloes at 43¢ · $363 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Colorado Buffaloes
6
Colorado Buffaloes 50%
$363.04
$4.09
42.1¢ → 42.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidColorado Buffaloes at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Providence Friars 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Colorado Buffaloesavg 42¢ | $206.55 | $209.01 | +$2.46 | 49% 3815-3978 (7793) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Providence Friarsavg 58¢ | $80.83 | $58 | -$1.98 | 53% 1348-1174 (2522) |
SU suntori<$100 | Providence Friarsavg 53.9¢ | $47.61 | $51.24 | +$3.63 | 46% 2638-3117 (5755) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Colorado Buffaloesavg 42¢ | $34.14 | $34.14 | -$0 | 42% 994-1362 (2356) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Colorado Buffaloesavg 46.5¢ | $7.55 | $7.1 | -$0.45 | 41% 693-1010 (1703) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Providence Friarsavg 51¢ | $3.12 | $3.55 | +$0.43 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
Invested
$206.55
Value
$209.01
PnL
+$2.46
Record
49%
3815-3978 (7793)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$80.83
Value
$58
PnL
-$1.98
Record
53%
1348-1174 (2522)
Invested
$47.61
Value
$51.24
PnL
+$3.63
Record
46%
2638-3117 (5755)
Invested
$34.14
Value
$34.14
PnL
-$0
Record
42%
994-1362 (2356)
Invested
$7.55
Value
$7.1
PnL
-$0.45
Record
41%
693-1010 (1703)
Invested
$3.12
Value
$3.55
PnL
+$0.43
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.