Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Colorado Buffaloes, while the market favors Providence Friars (90%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Colorado Buffaloes vs. Providence Friars

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado Buffaloes (42%) · Colorado Buffaloes at 11¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Colorado Buffaloes11¢Providence Friars89¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Colorado Buffaloes

Consensus Traders

Colorado Buffaloes 42%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$36.64

Smart Money Entry

15.1¢ → 10.5¢

-31% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidColorado Buffaloes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado Buffaloes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Providence Friars 90%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Colorado Buffaloes11%

Providence Friars90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colorado Buffaloes5 traders

Total Value$552.89

Total Shares3,567

Combined PnL+$13.27

Providence Friars7 traders

Total Value$609.09

Total Shares713

Combined PnL+$23.37

Colorado Buffaloes — 42%Providence Friars — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Colorado Buffaloes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColorado Buffaloes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrProvidence Friars 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedProvidence Friars 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Providence Friars 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Colorado Buffaloesavg 15¢	$916.03	$491.95	+$15.92	52% 602-565 (1167)
0xheavy888	Providence Friarsavg 85¢	$288.72	$288.72	-$0	56% 541-433 (974)
FL Flaznorp	Providence Friarsavg 79¢	$113.8	$125.32	+$11.52	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
RN1	Providence Friarsavg 74¢	$89.11	$101.76	+$12.64	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Colorado Buffaloesavg 14¢	$37.8	$41.85	+$4.05	34% 175-339 (514)
VeryLucky888	Providence Friarsavg 85¢	$170	$40.5	-$0.24	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
PA Pan9X<$100	Providence Friarsavg 84.6¢	$27.47	$23.77	-$0.78	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
38 38791873984189<$100	Providence Friarsavg 84.1¢	$20.31	$20.53	+$0.22	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Colorado Buffaloesavg 21¢	$21	$15.5	-$5.5	48% 294-314 (608)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Providence Friarsavg 85¢	$8.5	$8.5	-$0	41% 708-1019 (1727)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Colorado Buffaloesavg 21¢	$4.63	$3.42	-$1.21	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Colorado Buffaloesavg 14¢	$0.16	$0.18	+$0.02	56% 3718-2886 (6604)

nigiri99CTR

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$916.03

Value

$491.95

PnL

+$15.92

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

0xheavy888

Providence Friars

Invested

$288.72

Value

$288.72

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

Flaznorp

Providence Friars

Invested

$113.8

Value

$125.32

PnL

+$11.52

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

RN1

Providence Friars

Invested

$89.11

Value

$101.76

PnL

+$12.64

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$37.8

Value

$41.85

PnL

+$4.05

Record

34%

175-339 (514)

VeryLucky888

Providence Friars

Invested

$170

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$0.24

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

Pan9X<$100

Providence Friars

Invested

$27.47

Value

$23.77

PnL

-$0.78

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

38791873984189<$100

Providence Friars

Invested

$20.31

Value

$20.53

PnL

+$0.22

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$21

Value

$15.5

PnL

-$5.5

Record

48%

294-314 (608)

ameisgoat11<$100

Providence Friars

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$4.63

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$1.21

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.02

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

Research grade

AvoidColorado Buffaloes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado Buffaloes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Providence Friars 90%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Colorado Buffaloes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColorado Buffaloes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrProvidence Friars 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedProvidence Friars 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Providence Friars 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colorado Buffaloes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$732.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.