Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Wisconsin Badgers, while the market favors Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (58%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-29.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Wisconsin Badgers (80%) · Wisconsin Badgers at 42¢ · $25 held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Wisconsin Badgers
5
Wisconsin Badgers 80%
$25.22
$0.35
Research grade
AvoidWisconsin Badgers at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 58%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Wisconsin Badgers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Coastal Carolina Chanticleersavg 52.4¢ | $8.38 | $9.28 | +$0.9 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Wisconsin Badgersavg 48.5¢ | $7.65 | $7.2 | -$0.45 | 43% 867-1151 (2018) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Wisconsin Badgersavg 44¢ | $4.44 | $4.44 | +$0 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Wisconsin Badgersavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.2 | +$0 | 48% 2576-2780 (5356) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Wisconsin Badgersavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.1 | -$0.1 | 41% 1195-1702 (2897) |
Invested
$8.38
Value
$9.28
PnL
+$0.9
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Invested
$7.65
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$0.45
Record
43%
867-1151 (2018)
Invested
$4.44
Value
$4.44
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2576-2780 (5356)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.1
Record
41%
1195-1702 (2897)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.