Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Cleveland State Vikings, while the market favors Bowling Green Falcons (54%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Bowling Green Falcons (-12.5)
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Cleveland State Vikings (91%) · Cleveland State Vikings at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Cleveland State Vikings
11
Cleveland State Vikings 91%
$3.7K
-$7.6
46.9¢ → 46.5¢
-1% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
AvoidCleveland State Vikings at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Bowling Green Falcons 54%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
91% of non-arb traders are on Cleveland State Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Cleveland State Vikingsavg 46.5¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$0.69 | 30% 29-67 (96) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Cleveland State Vikingsavg 47.3¢ | $472.04 | $464.53 | -$7.51 | 69% 29-13 (42) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Cleveland State Vikingsavg 46¢ | $356.4 | $376.65 | +$20.25 | 5% 4-79 (83) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Cleveland State Vikingsavg 47.4¢ | $787 | $364.1 | -$7.25 | 49% 383-404 (787) |
HI hi774cCTR | Cleveland State Vikingsavg 48¢ | $226.58 | $219.5 | -$7.08 | 3% 9-249 (258) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Cleveland State Vikingsavg 47.3¢ | $171.81 | $168.8 | -$3.01 | 52% 242-224 (466) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Bowling Green Falconsavg 51¢ | $121.02 | $126.96 | +$5.93 | 30% 105-246 (351) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Cleveland State Vikingsavg 50¢ | $500 | $95.33 | -$7.11 | 100% 28-0 (28) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Cleveland State Vikingsavg 47¢ | $60.75 | $28.25 | -$0.3 | 23% 49-165 (214) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Cleveland State Vikingsavg 48.4¢ | $32 | $14.88 | -$0.6 | 48% 173-188 (361) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Cleveland State Vikingsavg 48¢ | $15 | $6.98 | -$0.23 | 18% 42-190 (232) |
Invested
$1,883.12
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$0.69
Record
30%
29-67 (96)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$472.04
Value
$464.53
PnL
-$7.51
Record
69%
29-13 (42)
Invested
$356.4
Value
$376.65
PnL
+$20.25
Record
5%
4-79 (83)
Invested
$787
Value
$364.1
PnL
-$7.25
Record
49%
383-404 (787)
Invested
$226.58
Value
$219.5
PnL
-$7.08
Record
3%
9-249 (258)
Invested
$171.81
Value
$168.8
PnL
-$3.01
Record
52%
242-224 (466)
Invested
$121.02
Value
$126.96
PnL
+$5.93
Record
30%
105-246 (351)
Invested
$500
Value
$95.33
PnL
-$7.11
Record
100%
28-0 (28)
Invested
$60.75
Value
$28.25
PnL
-$0.3
Record
23%
49-165 (214)
Invested
$32
Value
$14.88
PnL
-$0.6
Record
48%
173-188 (361)
Invested
$15
Value
$6.98
PnL
-$0.23
Record
18%
42-190 (232)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
CTRCleveland State Vikings — $1.9K
0xheavy888
CTRCleveland State Vikings — $464.53
forecastication4
CTRCleveland State Vikings — $376.65
38791873984189
CTRCleveland State Vikings — $364.1
hi774c
CTRCleveland State Vikings — $219.5
Flaznorp
CTRCleveland State Vikings — $168.8
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Bowling Green Falcons — $126.96
overtimemarkets.xyz-singles
CTRCleveland State Vikings — $95.33
sentrio
CTRCleveland State Vikings — $28.25
Pan9X
CTRCleveland State Vikings — $14.88