Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Charleston Southern Buccaneers vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons: O/U 155.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 41¢ · $357 held · ended Nov 11

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

Total Value

$357.16

Combined PnL

-$9.25

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 40.5¢

-17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$329.48

Total Shares703

Combined PnL-$12.55

Under4 traders

Total Value$27.68

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$3.3

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48¢	$222.72	$232	+$9.28	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
OD OddstormCTR	Overavg 50¢	$116	$93.96	-$22.04	20% 24-99 (123)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 44¢	$17.07	$19.39	+$2.33	51% 300-292 (592)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 50¢	$3.46	$4.12	+$0.66	25% 114-349 (463)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$3.31	$3.52	+$0.21	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.5	+$0.25	26% 181-519 (700)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 48¢	$1.61	$1.67	+$0.07	55% 120-97 (217)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$222.72

Value

$232

PnL

+$9.28

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

OddstormCTR

Over

Invested

$116

Value

$93.96

PnL

-$22.04

Record

20%

24-99 (123)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$17.07

Value

$19.39

PnL

+$2.33

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$3.46

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.66

Record

25%

114-349 (463)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.31

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.25

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$1.61

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.