Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chicago State Cougars, while the market favors San Diego Toreros (73%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: San Diego Toreros (-14.5)

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Chicago State Cougars (100%) · Chicago State Cougars at 28¢ · $438 held · ended Nov 14

San Diego Toreros73¢Chicago State Cougars27¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Chicago State Cougars

Consensus Traders

Chicago State Cougars 100%

Total Value

$438.14

Combined PnL

-$57.65

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 27.5¢

-43% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidChicago State Cougars at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chicago State Cougars

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors San Diego Toreros 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

San Diego Toreros73%

Chicago State Cougars28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chicago State Cougars5 traders

Total Value$438.14

Total Shares999

Combined PnL-$57.65

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Chicago State Cougars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChicago State Cougars 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Chicago State Cougars 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Chicago State Cougarsavg 48.5¢	$435.71	$381.54	-$54.17	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Chicago State Cougarsavg 50¢	$600	$44.12	-$2.1	73% 119-43 (162)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Chicago State Cougarsavg 48¢	$6.72	$5.88	-$0.84	55% 250-204 (454)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Chicago State Cougarsavg 48¢	$4.8	$4.2	-$0.6	40% 614-914 (1528)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Chicago State Cougarsavg 41¢	$2.34	$2.4	+$0.06	50% 3544-3611 (7155)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Chicago State Cougars

Invested

$435.71

Value

$381.54

PnL

-$54.17

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Chicago State Cougars

Invested

$600

Value

$44.12

PnL

-$2.1

Record

73%

119-43 (162)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Chicago State Cougars

Invested

$6.72

Value

$5.88

PnL

-$0.84

Record

55%

250-204 (454)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Chicago State Cougars

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.6

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Chicago State Cougars

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Research grade

AvoidChicago State Cougars at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Chicago State Cougars

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors San Diego Toreros 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Chicago State Cougars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChicago State Cougars 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Chicago State Cougars 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chicago State Cougars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.