Charleston Cougars vs. Temple Owls: O/U 157.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$3.8K
-$1.52
51¢ → 51¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | +$0.06 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $94.75 | $92.99 | -$1.76 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $60.5 | $11.73 | +$0.23 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $6.18 | $6.18 | -$0 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.4 | -$0.05 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$3,681.49
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$0.06
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$94.75
Value
$92.99
PnL
-$1.76
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$60.5
Value
$11.73
PnL
+$0.23
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$6.18
Value
$6.18
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.05
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.